According to data from Bloomberg Intelligence released on Monday, flight cancellations from China to Thailand increased by 94% in January. Most Chinese tourists chose to go skiing and soak in hot springs in Japan during the Chinese New Year. The case of Chinese actor ‘Wang Xing’ being kidnapped to Myanmar led to a significant cancellation of Chinese New Year trips. Although Thailand has intensified efforts to crack down on crime gangs using the country as a transit point to smuggle victims for call center operations, it has not alleviated the concerns of Chinese tourists.
Eric Zhu, an analyst from Bloomberg Intelligence, stated that safety concerns are affecting the decision-making of Chinese tourists. The Thai government has allowed call center gangs to use Thailand as a transit point for over a decade, creating a bright city like Shwe Kokko that resembles Las Vegas. If the Chinese government does not apply pressure, the Thai government is unlikely to take action.
Bloomberg Intelligence noted that flight bookings from China to Japan in the first quarter of this year have more than doubled compared to last year, due to the weak yen making flight tickets cheaper. The Shanghai-Tokyo route starts at $150, about 5,100 baht (this price cannot get you a flight from Bangkok to Koh Samui or Phuket). As a result, Japan has surpassed Thailand as the most popular destination for Chinese tourists during the 8-day Chinese New Year holiday. The Japan National Tourism Organization revealed that 980,000 Chinese tourists traveled to Japan in January, more than double from the previous year, while Thailand reported 711,000 Chinese tourists as of February 2, which is less than Japan.
Eric Zhu further stated that if Thailand cannot resolve the safety concerns of Chinese tourists by the end of this quarter (by the end of March), achieving the target of 8-8.9 million Chinese tourists this year will be difficult. If the problem persists until the end of 2025, it may result in fewer than 7.5 million Chinese tourists visiting Thailand. Meanwhile, flight bookings from China to Thailand in March have decreased by 10%, but there is a projected growth of over 3% from April to May.
Earlier in February, Nikkei Asia reported that during the 8-day Chinese New Year holiday, Chinese tourists flocked to Japan more than to Thailand. In 2024, Japan surpassed Thailand in terms of international tourists, with 36.87 million visitors compared to Thailand’s 35.55 million. Trip.com, a major travel website, also reported that travel during the Chinese holiday increased by 30% year-on-year, with ‘Japan’ being the most popular overseas destination for Chinese tourists. Tongcheng Travel, a large travel company in China, similarly reported that Japan is the number one travel destination for Chinese tourists, followed by Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand.
Reading this is shocking; Thailand has dropped to fifth place from being the number one destination for Chinese tourists. This is a result of neglecting transnational crime, which has made Chinese tourists fearful. Wealthy tourists are fleeing to Japan instead.
JTB, a consulting and research company for Japanese tourism, predicts that in 2025, the number of Chinese tourists traveling to Japan will increase by 33% to about 9.3 million. Chinese tourists find Japan appealing (and so do Thai tourists). Japan aims to attract 60 million tourists by 2030, up from 36.8 million in 2024. Takashimaya department store in Japan revealed that new wealthy Chinese tourists are increasingly purchasing luxury brands and duty-free cosmetics, with a 50% increase compared to the previous year’s holiday. If the government continues to be ‘obsessed with establishing gambling and online betting,’ which benefits a small group but undermines the nation’s long-term interests, Thai tourism may not recover. No one wants to visit a gray country.
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